True Wealth is Control Over Your Own Time

The Cone of Uncertainty

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As I write this, Randy and I are experiencing the approach of our first hurricane as Florida residents. It’s an interesting experience.

My sister in Naples gave me some advice last week. She said when they start talking about a hurricane it takes twice as long to get here as they say and the path changes many times before it’s done so just relax and wait. I know she didn’t mean not to prepare, but she was advising not to panic.

As the first reports of what’s turned into Hurricane Ian started surfacing, the thin black line in the middle of what I’ve learned is called the Cone of Uncertainty was literally right on top of us as it made landfall a week in the future. You probably know that Randy and I lost our house in a tornado in Missouri in 2003. People ask us if we were scared. I’ve always replied, in truth, we didn’t have time to be scared. Believe me, if you’re prone to worry, you have plenty of time to work up a boatload of fear waiting for a hurricane.

That’s not to say that we were (or are) scared. But there’s plenty of time.

Over the last few days we’ve seen people who definitely are worried. Still, life goes on. The day we first heard of the storm we went to the beach. It was a gorgeous day to be there. Yesterday (Saturday) I went to a get-out-the-vote political rally. It was a beautiful day. No panic there, at least not about the weather.

It seems the early alarm is common to relative Florida newbies. I talked to a lot of folks who’ve lived in the area a long time. None of them are worried, at least not yet with the storm still 5 days in the future. Yes, gas stations were running out of gas, the grocery stores have long lines, bottled water was sold out or rationed, and people started putting up their storm shutters. But no activities were cancelled and people were still making plans to fly in for vacations.

The house we bought is 30 years old, still has the original windows, and does not have any kind of storm protection for them. We knew this when we bought it. It’s gone through Hurricane Charley and Hurricane Irma, both very serious when they occurred. Our thinking is that it’s survived this long, it will eventually need new windows anyway, so our risk management decision is to just deal with the aftermath of any storm as it occurs.

Still, because we’re newbies, I called the man who took care of the house when it was a vacation rental before we bought it and asked how they’d prepare for an incoming hurricane. During our conversation, he mentioned he knew a woman who had a whole house set of aluminum hurricane panels, never used, that she might be willing to sell. A few calls later, we agreed to buy those panels for a fraction of what they’re worth. We saw this simply as an update to our previous risk management decision about hurricane preparedness. No panic involved. We can’t use them for this storm because we don’t have mounting hardware installed on the house itself, but we now have a bit of insurance for future weather events.

On Sunday we helped a friend put up her storm shutters. Her husband, sitting safely in Ohio, insisted she do that even though the weather forecast kept improving for our area. It was not fun, but we are learning first hand how unpredictable these storms are. I imagine sitting in a house that has become tomb-like (because of the shutters) during a really big blow can feel much safer than being able to see the destruction as it happens in real time during the main event. We’ll have to keep that in mind after we have the opportunity to actually mount ours.

Over the first few days, the thin black line representing the path of Hurricane Ian shifted west, staying out in the Gulf of Mexico. Everyone in my area started to relax a little. Then, as the days wore on (someone said waiting for a hurricane is like being stalked by a turtle) it crept back east. We were just barely still in the Cone of Uncertainty. In our area, they say, we’re still going to have wind, but the main danger will be from the storm surge. The day before I posted this a tropical storm watch was issued for our area. And now, as I’m actually posting on Tuesday morning, this was upgraded to a hurricane warning for us. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for those living in red zones. We’re in an orange zone.

The monster known as Hurricane Ian is going to land somewhere and it’s getting closer with every 6 hour update. Today we’ll take care of a few more last-minute preparations. And pray. Not pray that it doesn’t hit us, but that as it hits, the impacts are as small as they can possibly be. I know, first hand, how weather events can completely disrupt life. That’s just one of the risks you take when you make the life choice to live in Florida.

Now, I’m officially nervous.

P.S. On Friday I’ll let you know how we weathered the storm. If we have power.

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One response to “The Cone of Uncertainty”

  1. […] Hurricane Ian where I described feeling like we were being stalked by a turtle.  You can read it here.  We weren’t too worried back then.  But once Ian got into the Gulf it underwent a “rapid […]

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